Live Trading Pick Reports Strategy
live data  · 
Adaptive Weather Intelligence
Proprietary forecast engine combining multiple atmospheric data streams into a self-calibrating prediction model that learns from its own outcomes. Market signals are evaluated across six major U.S. cities — surfacing mispricings others miss.
Last scan 18Z cycle 2026-05-16T00:58:45Z · last eval 2026-05-17 00:50:03 UTC · 0 pending
Schedule & Key
DIR — BUY YES: bet it happens · BUY NO: bet it doesn't · ES — Edge Score 0–100, model confidence · KALSHI — same-side price on Kalshi · Cheaper = better deal there · Richer = worse deal · Agrees = within 5¢ · ≈ (bucket) = nearest Kalshi market has a different threshold — not a direct comparison
SIZING — Position size scales with Edge Score conviction. Higher ES = larger position.
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Top-ranked picks from today's active markets — Kalshi cross-check included where available
Pick Reports
Guru Selections
Best signal per city from the latest NOAA forecast cycle — model probability vs. market price
May 16, 2026 00:58 UTC
5
Signals
0
Markets
44
Top Score
BUY YES Miami 84-85°F 5/17 ES 53 18.5¢
BUY YES Atlanta 88-89°F 5/17 ES 44 16.5¢
No actionable signals for NYC.
No actionable signals for Chicago.
No actionable signals for Dallas.
No actionable signals for Seattle.
BUY YES 84-85°F 5/17 ES 53 18.5¢
BUY NO ≥94°F 5/17 ES 47 50.0¢
BUY YES 90-91°F 5/16 ES 42 18.0¢
BUY NO 94-95°F 5/16 ES 39 30.0¢
BUY NO 96-97°F 5/16 ES 39 60.0¢
BUY YES 88-89°F 5/17 ES 44 16.5¢
BUY NO 84-85°F 5/17 ES 42 67.5¢
BUY NO 86-87°F 5/17 ES 35 64.0¢
5/16
BUY NO NYC — 78-79°F ES 29 32.5¢ FREE
Forecast 76.0°F [71.3–74.9°F ±1.8] ·  NOAA 5.4%  ·  Market 32.5¢  ·  Date 5/16
Confidence: LOW  ·  Model agreement: LOW   ✅ ALL CLEAR
⚑ 💧 LOW LIQUIDITY sub-market — use event-level volume
⚑ ⏰ EXPIRES SOON — markets may halt day-of
⚑ 📊 CONSENSUS: GFS 78° | ICON 72° | GEM 77° | JMA 79° | ECMWF 74° (avg 76°F)
Base ES: 38.28 obs: 65% path: 51% micro: 63% sanity: 60% forecast: 35% mispricing: 20% | agent: ×1.0 epoch: ×1.0 consensus: ×1.0 kalshi div: ×1.0 element div: ×1.0 miss streak: ×1.0 model agree: ×0.75 repeat pick: ×1.0 policy bias total pts: ×0.0 → Final: 28.7
5/17
BUY YES Atlanta — 88-89°F ES 44 16.5¢ FREE
Forecast 87.0°F [84.3–89.2°F ±2.5] ·  NOAA 46.7%  ·  Market 16.5¢  ·  Date 5/17
Confidence: LOW  ·  Model agreement: NEUTRAL   ✅ ALL CLEAR
⚑ 💧 LOW LIQUIDITY sub-market — use event-level volume
⚑ ⏰ EXPIRES SOON — markets may halt day-of
⚑ 💰 STRONG EDGE — verify NOAA data freshness
⚑ 📊 CONSENSUS: GFS 87° | ICON 84° | GEM 86° | JMA 83° | ECMWF 88° (avg 86°F)
Base ES: 45.81 obs: 65% path: 41% micro: 68% sanity: 79% forecast: 56% mispricing: 16% | agent: ×1.0 epoch: ×1.0 consensus: ×1.0 kalshi div: ×1.0 element div: ×1.0 miss streak: ×1.0 model agree: ×0.95 repeat pick: ×1.0 policy bias total pts: ×0.0 → Final: 43.5
BUY NO Atlanta — 84-85°F ES 42 32.5¢ FREE
Forecast 87.0°F [84.3–89.2°F ±2.5] ·  NOAA 13.3%  ·  Market 32.5¢  ·  Date 5/17
Confidence: LOW  ·  Model agreement: NEUTRAL   ✅ ALL CLEAR
⚑ 💧 LOW LIQUIDITY sub-market — use event-level volume
⚑ ⏰ EXPIRES SOON — markets may halt day-of
⚑ 📊 CONSENSUS: GFS 87° | ICON 84° | GEM 86° | JMA 83° | ECMWF 88° (avg 86°F)
Base ES: 44.44 obs: 65% path: 41% micro: 76% sanity: 60% forecast: 56% mispricing: 12% | agent: ×1.0 epoch: ×1.0 consensus: ×1.0 kalshi div: ×1.0 element div: ×1.0 miss streak: ×1.0 model agree: ×0.95 repeat pick: ×1.0 policy bias total pts: ×0.0 → Final: 42.2
BUY YES Miami — 84-85°F ES 40 18.5¢ FREE
Forecast 85.0°F [83.3–85.5°F ±1.1] ·  NOAA 72.0%  ·  Market 18.5¢  ·  Date 5/17
Confidence: HIGH  ·  Model agreement: NEUTRAL   ✅ ALL CLEAR
⚑ 💧 LOW LIQUIDITY sub-market — use event-level volume
⚑ ⏰ EXPIRES SOON — markets may halt day-of
⚑ 💰 STRONG EDGE — verify NOAA data freshness
⚑ 📊 CONSENSUS: GFS 85° | ICON 87° | GEM 88° | JMA 82° | ECMWF 82° (avg 85°F)
Base ES: 63.82 obs: 65% path: 41% micro: 75% sanity: 100% forecast: 95% mispricing: 24% | agent: ×1.0 epoch: ×1.0 consensus: ×1.0 kalshi div: ×1.0 element div: ×1.0 miss streak: ×0.8 model agree: ×0.95 repeat pick: ×1.0 policy bias total pts: ×-8.0 → Final: 40.5
Guru Selections
Best signal per city from the latest NOAA forecast cycle — model probability vs. market price
May 14, 2026 21:38 UTC
5
Signals
0
Markets
39
Top Score
BUY YES Miami 86-87°F 5/16 ES 52 16.0¢
BUY YES Dallas 90-91°F 5/16 ES 39 26.0¢
BUY YES Seattle 56-57°F 5/16 ES 38 21.5¢
BUY NO Atlanta 78-79°F 5/14 ES 37 10.0¢
No actionable signals for NYC.
No actionable signals for Chicago.
BUY YES 90-91°F 5/16 ES 39 26.0¢
BUY NO 88-89°F 5/16 ES 39 66.0¢
BUY NO 82-83°F 5/16 ES 36 50.0¢
BUY YES 56-57°F 5/16 ES 38 21.5¢
BUY YES 58-59°F 5/16 ES 36 12.0¢
BUY YES 86-87°F 5/16 ES 52 16.0¢
BUY NO 90-91°F 5/15 ES 49 51.0¢
BUY NO 94-95°F 5/16 ES 48 10.0¢
BUY NO 96-97°F 5/16 ES 48 10.0¢
BUY NO ≥98°F 5/16 ES 48 60.0¢
BUY YES 88-89°F 5/15 ES 40 20.5¢
BUY NO 96-97°F 5/15 ES 36 10.0¢
BUY NO 78-79°F 5/14 ES 37 10.0¢
5/14
BUY YES Seattle — 62-63°F ES 39 2.1¢ FREE
Forecast 62.0°F [59.4–63.5°F ±2.0] ·  NOAA 42.1%  ·  Market 2.1¢  ·  Date 5/14
Confidence: HIGH  ·  Model agreement: LOW   ✅ ALL CLEAR
⚑ ⏰ EXPIRES SOON — markets may halt day-of
⚑ 💰 STRONG EDGE — verify NOAA data freshness
⚑ 📊 CONSENSUS: GFS 64° | ICON 60° | GEM 60° | JMA 58° | ECMWF 58° (avg 60°F)
⚑ ⚠️ FORECAST OUTLIER: blend 62°F vs consensus 60°F (+2°F)
Base ES: 51.64 obs: 65% path: 61% micro: 48% sanity: 93% forecast: 63% mispricing: 30% | agent: ×1.0 epoch: ×1.0 consensus: ×1.0 kalshi div: ×1.0 element div: ×1.0 miss streak: ×1.0 model agree: ×0.75 repeat pick: ×1.0 policy bias total pts: ×0.0 → Final: 38.7
5/15
BUY YES NYC — 68-69°F ES 27 23.5¢ FREE
Forecast 67.0°F [64.9–70.1°F ±2.5] ·  NOAA 40.0%  ·  Market 23.5¢  ·  Date 5/15
Confidence: MODERATE  ·  Model agreement: LOW   ✅ ALL CLEAR
⚑ 💧 LOW LIQUIDITY sub-market — use event-level volume
⚑ ⏰ EXPIRES SOON — markets may halt day-of
⚑ 📊 CONSENSUS: GFS 67° | ICON 64° | GEM 68° | JMA 64° | ECMWF 69° (avg 66°F)
Base ES: 41.47 obs: 65% path: 51% micro: 60% sanity: 70% forecast: 50% mispricing: 14% | agent: ×1.0 epoch: ×1.0 consensus: ×1.0 kalshi div: ×1.0 element div: ×1.0 miss streak: ×1.0 model agree: ×0.85 repeat pick: ×1.0 policy bias total pts: ×-8.0 → Final: 27.3
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